A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
